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Tuesday, May 5, 2009

The Blue Tide Advances
May 4, 2009
With an eye toward 2010 and Round II in the fight over control of the Senate, the DSCC is touting enrollment numbers from the state Board of Elections that shows Democrats far outpacing Republicans in nine key Senate districts when it comes to attracting new members over the past year.
All nine of the districts in question are currently represented by veteran Republican lawmakers.
In many cases, these senators holding on to their respective seats in spite of the changing electorate due to a combination of incumbent power, personality, familiarity to voters and constituent servce.
Not to mention cash - both in the form of member items and campaign contributions - which they are going to have trouble with now that they've lost the majority.
A handy spreadsheet shows Republicans losing enrollment in six districts (6th, 38th, 39th, 20th, 41st, and 42nd) and growing in three (4th, 11th, and 55th), but more slowly than the Democrats. The Democrats lost enrollment in just one district - the 42nd - and gained the most in the Long Island district of GOP Sen. Owen Johnson, where the party picked up 8,446 new members (+14.6 percent) compared to the Republicans' 1,148 (+1.8 percent).
The second district when Democrats saw their biggest gain was the 55th in Monroe County, currently represented by GOP Sen. James Alesi. Democrats saw their enrollment rolls swell by 7,544 members between March 2008 and April 2009, compared to the Republicans' 950 (which might explain why Alesi appears poised to come out in favor of same-sex marriage).
"The writing's on the wall for Republicans running for office all over New York, and the ink is an ever-deepening shade of blue, said DSCC spokesman Shams Tarek.